NFL Betting: What Bettors Need to Know for Week 3

Upsets ruled the board in Week 2 of the NFL season with underdogs going 5-10-1 against the spread (ATS).

Divisional favorites were a bad bet, as Baltimore, Carolina and New England were all on the losing side – not only at the betting window – but straight-up (SU) as well.

The Patriots (-14.5) this week were already listed as the biggest favorite of the season when sportsbook opened the line for their game against the Buffalo Bills. Heavy action since Monday though, has pushed the line has high as 15 points at some places. Given Buffalo’s performance so far it is quite likely that number will touch 16 points by kickoff.

SPORTS BETTING FACT
The New England Patriots (66-percent) are the second highest picked public favorite among sports bettors since 2007.

DRAW A LINE
We’ve had a chance to see most NFL teams in home and away situations but during the next few weeks bettors are going to have to start considering other factors such as early bodyclock games, divisional sandwich situations and look-ahead spots. Perhaps it will be a revenge situation or even worse – a playoff revenge game.

When this happens, astute bettors will jump quickly on favorable lines but it can work both ways. An example is this week when San Francisco (-2.5) travels to Kansas City.

Against a team that finished last season 4-12 SU that seems like an awfully low line, especially for a 49ers team that nearly knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions just a few days ago. Or does it?

San Francisco played in just one Monday Night game in 2009, it was at home and they covered the spread as an underdog. Sound familiar?

Next, the Niners had to travel to Philadelphia which is three time zones ahead for San Francisco. Kansas City is only two hours different but the unusual travel situation can still take its toll.

Kansas City is also a non-Conference foe and wouldn’t you know it; the Niners lost each of their past three road games against AFC teams. In fact the only inter-Conference road game they’ve won since Mike Singletary took over the team was 10-3 at Buffalo.

So after just a quick look at this matchup the oddsmaker’s line starts to make a lot more sense. The Chiefs’ 2-0 SU record also needs to be considered but we’re discounting a few points away from any win against the Cleveland Browns!

TIME TRAVELERS
The 49ers were 0-4 straight-up in 2009 the first four times they traveled to play Eastern/Central time zone opponents

INTER-CONFERENCE BETTING STAT
In eight non-Conference matchups so far this year favorites are 6-2 SU but only 3-3-2 ATS.

Every one of the early games this week is either an inter-Conference or divisional matchup. Several more trends and systems are sure to develop as we move into Week 4. While it’s tough to look at all the angles, be sure to look at more than just one before placing your bets.

Check the updated NFL Odds @ sportsbetting.com

UFC 119:UFC Betting

UFC 119 is this Saturday September 25 in Indianapolis, Indiana and online sportsbook Sportsbetting.com has the odds on the upcoming fight card. This fight card may not have a Championship title on the line, it does offer plenty of opportunities to move into a position to challenge for one.

Frank Mir -250 vs Mirko Cro Cop +180
This is the last gasp for two great warriors of MMA. Frank Mir 13-5 coming off a devastating 1st round loss to Shane Carwin gets a chance back on the road for the heavyweight championship against Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop. Cro Cop 27-7-2 is riding a 2 fight winning streak and coming off an impressive come from behind win against Pat Barry. Cro Cop is a replacement for an injured Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira and this could be the break Cro Cop need. Classic striker vs BJJ match where if Frank Mir doesn’t watch himself, he may get caught. Likewise, Cro Cop’s chin isn’t what it used to be which makes this an exciting headliner.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +140 vs Ryan Bader -170
Little “Nog” has been on an impressive seven fight win streak while Ryan Bader enters this fight undefeated at 11-0. This is Bader’s toughest fight in his young career and the wrestler will have all he can handle. A win for Little “Nog” will put him in the spotlight for a shot at the light heavyweight title.

Matt Serra +105 vs Chris Lytle -135
Rematch of TUF 4 finale, and a candidate for fight of the night, Chris Lytle gets his shot at revenge of a split decision that went Matt Serra’s way. Chris Lytle, the busier of the two since TUF finale, is a slight favorite and gets his chance at revenge. The underdog, Matt “The Terror,” Serra will be plenty motivated to get back on the road to regaining his welterweight title he lost in 2008. Serra has a dangerous punch that Lytle will have to guard against and then pressure Serra on the ground. Should be an exciting fight.

Sean Sherk +180 vs Evan Dunham -230
Sean Sherk’s last fight was 16 months ago, a loss to current champion Frankie Edgar, and ring rust may be Sherk’s enemy in this fight. Sherk will need to overcome the rust fast, as fast rising Evan Dunham may not give him any time to overcome it. Dunham is a heavy favorite on his 11-0 record with big wins over Tyson Griffin and Efrain Escudero. Sherk has experience on his side, but he’ll need more to defeat Dunham and his layoff.

Melvin Guillard -170 vs Jeremy Stephens +140
Looking for an underdog to place a bet on? Jeremy Stephens may be your man. Tough fighter, with great striking abilities, Stephens is a live dog in this fight. Melvin Guillard is no slouch who has is 5-1 in his last 6 fights. Guillard is favored with a win over Glieson Tibau while Stephens lost to the same fighter. Stephens has stepped up his game since then and there will be fireworks between the two. A knockout is likely the outcome in this fight.

You can check all the UFC Betting & Odds @ Sportsbetting.com

NFL Betting: Look into the Futures

Parity is looming large through the first two weeks of the NFL season with eight teams at 2-0, eight more at 0-2 and the remaining 16 teams sitting with a 1-1 straight-up record.

It has set Week 3 up as a pivotal start for several teams and sportsbook have posted some tight lines. Out of 16 games, online sportsbook, Sportsbetting.com, has 10 teams favored by four points or less.

One way bettors can take advantage of the situation is to look ahead to Week 4 matchups and check ‘Prospective Betting’ lines that are currently being offered.

Prospective Betting involves picking sides from an upcoming point in the season and placing a bet based on odds being offered today. When the game comes "live", odds for the bet that’s already in your pocket don’t change.

For example, if you place a bet on a Week 5 underdog at +7.5 points and by game time the number is down to +5.5, you have given yourself a two-point advantage. And if the favorite wins by a touchdown, your play on the dog +7 is still a winner.

Indianapolis (-6) is at Denver this week and the following week the Colts travel to Jacksonville. Sportsbetting.com currently lists the Colts (-6) and while it will be second of back-to-back road games, if Peyton Manning plays in Denver the way he did last Sunday vs. his brother, laying six points will be a steal. You can check all the NFL odds.


CAUGHT RED HANDED
The new location for the umpire this season has had an immediate impact on the number of offensive holding penalties this season and teams that can’t help but hold are getting beat by the books.

Of the seven most-penalized teams (Jets, Cardinals, Raiders, Eagles, Titans, Rams and Cowboys), not one team has been a good bet this year.

New York, Arizona, Tennessee and St. Louis are 1-1 ATS while the others are a combined 0-8 ATS.

Compared with early season stats from 2007-09, offensive holding calls are up nearly 75-percent and while teams take time to adjust, bad offenses will continue to struggle, setting up solid plays AGAINST for bettors.

EAGLE FLYING HIGH
The Philadelphia Eagles have announced they will stick with Michael Vick as their starter for this week’s matchup in Jacksonville. Vick took over when Kevin Kolb was injured vs. Green Bay and led the Eagles to a road win in Detroit last weekend.

It was thought that Kolb would take back the starter’s job once he was cleared by medical staff but in the NFC East, where three teams share a tie for first, a Reid’s gotta do what a Reid’s gotta do!

F1 BETTING – SINGAPORE GRAND PRIX

The Formula One World Championship is heating up as the season nears its completion! There are five drivers who could possibly win the title and they are all separated by fewer points than can be claimed for winning a race, and this weekend we return to Singapore – the site of the biggest scandal in Formula One in recent years.

The Singapore race was first held as part of the Formula One World Championship in 2008 and that race was won by one of this season’s title contenders Fernando Alonso in a Renault. Alonso started the race in 15th and went on to win the race following a safety car period after his team-mate crashed when he was the only driver to have stopped for a pit stop. This allowed Alonso to control the race from the front, however it later emerged that Renault had order Alonso’s team-mate, Nelson Piquet Jr., to crash on purpose to allow Alonso to win the race. Following an investigation, several members of Renault were banned from Formula One and Renault were handed a suspended ban from F1.

While we don’t expect to see anything of this level of incident at this season’s race, the top five drivers will all be battling for the race win and there should be plenty of action and excitement. Red Bull are the favourites to win the race, with their drivers Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber available at odds of 3.25 and 4.00 respectively with sportsbook, and with their car having the best aerodynamic package one of their drivers likely to take the win. Can Alonso (available at 5.50) or the McLaren drivers – Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button (available at 4.50 and 12.00 respectively) – stop the Red Bull cars?

Alonso will be in confident spirits after his win in Italy two weeks ago and Button will upbeat about his chances after a strong showing at Monza that saw him lead the race and eventually finish second to Alonso. Hamilton won in Singapore in 2009 and after crashing out in the last race, he will want a good performance. Despite all this, we feel that the Red Bull cars will be the ones to beat as they have been on non-power based tracks this season.

Will it be Vettel or Webber to take the chequered flag though? After being beaten by Vettel at Monza, Webber will want to reassert his dominance over Vettel this season and we feel that he will take the win in the Far East.

As a result we’re backing Mark Webber to win the Singapore Grand Prix @ 4.00.

You can check all the Formula 1 Betting & odds @sportsbetting.com

NFL Betting Update

In case there was any uncertainty, Indianapolis laid everyone’s concerns to rest Sunday night in front of a national TV audience: Peyton Manning’s offense is still one of the best in the business, a championship defense can in fact be built on speed, and the Colts are the top team in the AFC South (yes, Houston we know you scored the victory Week 1).

A performance like Sunday’s win over the Giants makes the price that sportsbook have on the Colts (+400) to win the AFC look attractive and the opportunity for such an offer is likely only going to be around for a few more days.

Indianapolis is at Denver in Week 3 and Sportsbetting.com has listed the Colts as a 6- point favorite. After that one, Indy will face Jacksonville and Kansas City, a pair of 1-and-1 clubs, and even though Indy may not cover the spread in all three matchups, odds are very good they will be 4-1 SU (straight-up) by Week 6.

- Houston improved to 2-0 SU with an overtime win at Washington, who the Colts will meet in Week 6 and then Indianapolis has a bye. When they return it’s a rematch with the Texans on Monday Night Football!

Wouldn’t it be something if the Colts are 5-0 SU for that game since that loss in Houston Week 1.

‘Prospective Betting’ lines for that and every matchup from now through Week 17 are available now at the sportsbook . The current line shows Indianapolis (-6).

LITTLE BROTHER
Eli Manning must be used to getting picked on by his older brother. It started when they were kids and even in the pros Peyton has kept on given little brother the beats.

What doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger, though, and its possible bettors could find value looking for the Giants to go on a roll.

The last time big bros beat up on Eli was Week 1, 2006. The Giants followed that loss with a straight-up win as a divisional road dog in Philadelphia and then went on to five of their next six games SU (4-2 ATS).

New York is home for back-to-back games against two beatable foes stating Sunday (Tennessee, Chicago), and oddsmakers have listed the Giants as -3.5 favorites.

Ex-Giant Kerry Collins was calling signals for the fourth quarter of the Titans’ 19-11 loss against Pittsburgh but Coach Fisher says Vince Young will start in New York.

QB SCRAMBLE
One quarterback that will not be back under center this week is Steve Moore. Coach Fox did not liked what he saw in either of Moore’s first two starts and announced Monday that rookie QB Jimmy Clausen will make his first NFL start Sunday when the Bengals visit Carolina.

Cincinnati (-3.5) was far better at home against Baltimore than they were in New England and early money has already started to come in on the road favorite for this inter-Conference game.

There is also concern that Steelers QB Dennis Dixon (knee) could be out longer than expected with a torn lateral meniscus that could require arthroscopic surgery to repair the damage. Ben Roethlisberger would be back with the team before Dixon but in the meantime Pittsburgh has re-signed Byron Leftwich as a backup to Charlie Batch.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) is in Tampa Bay (2-0) this Sunday and the Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their past five non-Conference meetings away from Heinz Field.

Good luck this week @ sportsbetting.com

NFL Betting: Saints vs. 49ers Preview

Monday Night Football is usually considered the ‘big’ game of the week during the regular season, but with the run the Saints have been on, primetime matchups are starting to become old hat. In a stretch that goes back to last year’s playoffs, tonight marks the fifth consecutive game for New Orleans in front of a national TV audience.

The Week 1 opener vs. Minnesota was not exactly the brand of football Saints bettors have become accustomed to, but a 14-9 win was enough to get the team past the mythical post-Super Bowl jinx that has sent several past champions to the mat.

San Francisco not only lost its first game, they were slapped hard by a divisional opponent (Seattle) who this weekend at Denver proved they were not very special after all. The pressure in this game for a strong performance is clearly on the 49ers.

Sportsbook have the line as New Orleans -5.

PAST PERFORMANCES
2010 marks the third straight year the Saints have opened the season at home and followed it with a non-divisional road game the very next week. They are 3-0 SU in the home portion and the games that followed the last two years had completely different results (5 point loss – 26 point win). Today’s Saints are nothing like the group from `08, however, so it’s not worth putting too much weight into the trend.

It is worth noting that the Saints are 6-9 ATS on Monday Night and they have won five straight over the 49ers since being swept in a 2001 home-and-home series against their then-NFC West rival.

San Francisco is looking to avoid its first 0-2 SU start since 2005. They are 4-1 SU in their home opener the past five years and 3-2 against the number.

SPOTLIGHT
No wonder the Saints don’t mind a lot of attention!

2009 Divisional Finals – Saints (-7) hosted the Arizona Cardinals, winning 45-14 (Over 57)

2009 Conference Championship – Saints (-3.5) beat Minnesota 31-28 in overtime (Over 54)

Super Bowl XLIV at Dolphins Stadium – Saints (+4) upset Indianapolis Colts 31-17 (Under 56.5)

2010 NFL Season Kickoff – Saints (-5) welcome Brett Favre back with another defeat, 14-9 (Under 49)

PUBLIC EYE
According to online sportsbooks, only three teams this week including the Saints (87-percent) were heavily over weighted with public money to one side. The other big favorites Sunday, Philadelphia (89-percent) and New England (89-percent), both came up short at the betting window.

Combine it with figures from Week 1, where overweight public favs went 1-3 ATS and it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Joe Public. Can the Saints change the market?

PREDICTION
Expectations for the 49ers were high coming into the season and after the blowout at Qwest Field, no one should be sounding the alarms just yet. A 0-3 SU day for NFC West rivals on Sunday helps the cause and with a win today, San Francisco would be right on pace. Now getting that win vs. the most explosive team in football is another story.

QB Smith is going to be under a lot of duress from the front seven and when he does get the ball away the Saints’ ball hawking secondary will be looking to make plays. San Francisco’s run-game was good for only 49 yards against Seattle and if they fall behind it will be hard to get untracked.

The Niners also converted just 1-for-15 on third downs and while no team is ever ‘as bad’ as they were the week before, Mike Singletary’s squad has a lot of ground to make up.
Pick: Take the Saints

Check the updated NFL odds @ sportsbetting.com

NFL Betting: Season Win Totals Still Offered

In the weeks leading up to the kickoff of the new NFL season, sportsbook offered lines on win totals for each team. These “Season Win Total” plays are always popular with the sports betting public.

Sportsbetting.com - However, with the advent of free agency and so much movement and parity interjected into the league these days, there is a sense it has become more difficult for bettors to handicap individual teams on a year-to-year basis.

With one week in the books we’ve now had a chance to see the first teamers respond to different playbooks, new teammates and coaching changes. Its knowledge we can use for betting sides and totals on the Week 2 card, but there is another option available that could offer even more value.

One sportsbook, Sportsbetting.com, is giving bettors a chance to make plays on Adjusted ‘Season Win Totals’ with revised pricing based on Week 1 results.

So now you can apply some of the things you learned opening week to handicapping these bets, something that hasn’t been an option in the past.

Favorites came out of Week 1 with a 10-6 straight-up (SU) record and for the six teams that were upset, this could be a viewed as a good buying opportunity as the loss gets swept under the carpet and these teams prepare for Round 2.

One play you might want to look at is the San Diego Chargers (Over 10 -120). The defending AFC West champs were rained on, beat up and bowled over by a feisty Kansas City team celebrating the grand re-opening of Arrowhead Stadium. San Diego was using a new O-line, featured a rookie running back and played its first game without last year’s top receiver (V. Jackson). The team was got caught off guard by a "live" divisional home dog.

The reward for bettors that waited is a half-point advantage over the Chargers preseason win total and the insurance of a ‘Push’ option on 10 wins. Remember, this team is notorious for starting slow but they did finish 2009 with 11-straight wins.

Or how about teams that mildly shocked the sports betting community with Week 1 performances that weren’t even on the radar screen for handicappers? Seattle, Washington and Houston are all 1-0 SU right now and it created a spike in their projected win total for the season. Will the winning ways continue?

The Redskins host the Texans in Week 2, guaranteeing (almost certainly) that one of these teams will be 1-1. If you think Arian Foster is the new Chris Johnson, the value for betting Houston "Over" may be gone. If Donovan McNabb’s first win was a hoax, however, and there’s no way the Redskins will survive such an obvious lack of chemistry for an entire season, then playing the inflated win total "Under" 8 wins offers immediate value.

A good strategy while setting up for Week 2 is to check the lines for all 32 teams in the football betting section your sportsbook. Compare your preseason thoughts with impressions from Week 1 and then look at this week’s matchups. If a team that lost in Week 1 has a good chance at winning straight-up in Week 2, reference the odds for their adjusted win total.

Spotting line value means more than just looking at the current matchups. If there is a good ‘Futures’ pick available, it could be your best bet.

You can check all the updated NFL Odds @ sportsbetting.com