Soccer Betting: English Premier League Picks

All the big sides are in action this weekend in the English Premier League and we will be looking at their matches and offering our insight on where the best value lies.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

The biggest game of the weekend sees Chelsea entertain Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Both sides had impressive results in their midweek Champions League matches against Marseille and Partizan Belgrade respectively. Chelsea kept their eighth straight clean sheet at home in their Champions and Premier League games as they won 2-0, while Arsenal beat their Serbian opponents 3-1 away from home. Both sides will want to win the game, with Chelsea looking to extend their lead at the top of the table, while Arsenal will close to within a point of Chelsea with a win. Also Chelsea have won the last four matches against Arsenal, so Arsenal will want to prevent it getting to five in a row. The game could either way to be honest as both sides are so good this season, but we’re backing over 2.5 goals in the match. We see sportsbook with the line 1.77 on that one. Five of the last six games have had at least three goals in them and we foresee more goals this time around.

Play this one Over 2.5

Manchester United vs. Sunderland

On Saturday afternoon Sunderland host Manchester United in a game that both sides will feel that they can win. Sunderland have impressed this season, with Darren Bent in sparkling form and he has found the net on five occasions from their opening six fixtures. Despite winning both away games in the Carling Cup and Champions League, United are yet to win away from home in the Premier League having drawn all three matches so far, but will they carry their away form with them after beating Valencia in midweek? This is another game that could easily go either way, so we’re leaning towards goals in this match too and we’re putting our money on over 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (line is from Sportsbetting.com).

Play this one Over 2,5

Newcastle United vs. Man City

The final game we’re looking at sees big spending Manchester City host Newcastle United at Eastlands at Sunday lunchtime. City’s last league game saw them defeat reigning champions and current league leaders Chelsea through a Carlos Tevez goal, now can they beat newly promoted Newcastle? Newcastle have an up and down season with some impressive wins and then some mystifying losses. Do they have the quality to beat Manchester City? Probably not and we’re on the home win wagon here, and we’re backing Manchester City to win @ 1.31.

We’re backing Man City

Check all the EPL Odds

Have a great weekend

Hot Lines for Week 4

Donovan McNabb’s much anticipated return to Philadelphia this week has instantly made the Redskins-Eagles one of the more popular games for early-week bettors.

Online sportsbook opened the line for this contest at Eagles -6.5, but the bait for Redskins backers, including those who were paying the extra juice to ‘buy the hook’ up to seven was too tempting. Early public money was coming in at 65-percent according to odds trackers but since the line dropped to -6 the action has started to even out.

Washington has a 7-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) in its last 11 meetings with the Philadelphia.

PUBLIC FAVORITES

Houston (90-percent), San Diego (86-percent) and New Orleans (82-percent) are three of the most popular bets on the board this week but huge public favorites have not proven to be a wise investment through the first three weeks of the season.

Huge fan favorite teams attracting the most money at the ticket windows are hitting at a dismal 29-percent (4-10 ATS).

While the readings from early in the week are likely to change since the majority of bettors don’t start buying until the weekend, it’s a worthwhile practice finding a consistent source of information that lets you watch where the money is going through the week.

WEARY TRAVELLERS

Seattle (-1), Denver and San Francisco will all be travelling decent distances this weekend for road games at St. Louis, Tennessee (-6.5) and Atlanta (-7) respectively.

While the Broncos will only wind their watches one hour to the Central time zone and the Seahawks only click two zones ahead, San Francisco is falling into the classic ‘Early body clock’ trap synonymous with West Coast teams playing in the Eastern time zone.

The 49ers were 0-5 straight-up in 2009 the first five times they traveled to play Eastern/Central time zone opponents, finally breaking the slump in Week 17 at St. Louis. San Francisco is also just 1-8 SU in their past nine road games overall and if last week’s game in Kansas City was any indicator, 2010 looks like another good spot to fade these weary travellers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that when getting +7 points or more, the 49ers were 2-1 ATS in 2009.

There’s a look at a few games this weekend. Best of luck with your bets.

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Thursday Night Football: NFL Bye Weeks Begin

Thursday Night Football Betting: NFL Bye Weeks Begin

Right from the first Thursday night game of the NFL season the weekly football betting routine can fly by at a furious pace. NFL lines for the following week’s games are often posted by online sportsbook before we have even heard the final whistle on Sunday Night Football but as fans and bettors, we wouldn’t have it any other way.

It’s hard to believe three weeks have already passed and as we work through the Week 4 card, it’s time to start focusing a little closer on matchups and situational football handicapping.

The bye weeks are here, starting with the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It means a little less action from a viewing standpoint but the smaller card also frees up more time to handicap the other 14 games on the card.

LONG DIVISION

In Week 4, even with the bye weeks coming into effect, there are more divisional games scheduled than in any other week through the first month. Week 1 had seven, Week 2 there was only three and in Week 3 we saw six divisional matchups.

The road team will be favored in at least four of the nine divisional contests, possibly five, depending which way the line moves in New England at Miami.

There is a trend developing this season that involves divisional road favorites and it’s certainly worth noting for Over/Under bettors.

- When favored by -3 points or more, divisional road favs this year have played 0 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland (Total of 37), NY Jets (-5) at Buffalo (Total of 37) and Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville (Total of 46) all fit the criteria and the "Under" in these three matchups is a play for you to consider.

PICK A SPOT

When looking at these divisional rivalries it is impossible to ignore certain trends that have developed between some of the teams. Two guaranteed meetings per season boosts the credibility of a betting trend because it involves more of the same players and coaches.

Just from the above matchups we can see that the underdog in the Bengals-Browns series is 6-0 ATS since 2007.

We also noticed that the road team in the Colts-Jaguars series is 6-0 ATS the past three seasons.

The road teams is 5-0 ATS in the past five tilts between the Jets and Bills but one of the more glaring trends shows that Buffalo has been a terrible play as a home underdog, going 1-8 ATS the past nine times.

Road favorites were 4-4 ATS in Week 3 but it doesn’t completely make up for their 0-4-1 ATS mark in Week 2. In these three divisional matchups we’ve listed, the road team and the "Under" look like the solid picks but before you circle any of them as a best bet, make sure to do thorough research into the local papers and team websites for injury information.

Think of it this way – with only 14 games on the card you should have some extra time!

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Champions League Picks: Champions League odds

The second half of this week’s Champions League action kicks off today, but who will claim the points in today’s eight games? Let’s previews a selection of games.

Group C – Valencia v Manchester United:
The night’s biggest game comes from the Mestalla Stadium as La Liga leaders Valencia host second in the Premier League table Manchester United. Will United turn around their away form record this season with a victory? Valencia are the favourites to win the match with odds of 2.63, while Man United can be backed at 2.75 and the draw is available at 3.20.

Despite being massively in debt and selling off the majority of their top players, including David Villa, David Silva and Nikola Zigic, over the summer, Valencia have begun the La Liga campaign in fine form and top the table after five games. They have dropped just two points from their opening five games and they are ahead of Barcelona by a point and Real Madrid by two. They also thumped Bursaspor 4-0 in Turkey in their opening Champions League fixture, now can they add another win to their collection against Alex Ferguson’s men?

Manchester United sit second in the Premier League after an undefeated start to the season and, although they have shown glimpses of their brilliance, they are underperforming this season. They have played eight matches this season between the Premier League, Carling Cup and Champions League and they have won four and drawn four of these. Away from home they have drawn with Fulham, Everton and Bolton Wanderers in the Premier League and their only win has come at Scunthorpe United in the Carling Cup. Can they change that around and claim their first big name away win?

United are without Wayne Rooney and Paul Scholes for this game, as well as the injured Antonio Valencia, and missing these players will affect them slightly. This will give Valencia an opportunity to win the game and I feel that they will take it and claim all three points. Both sides have good goal threats and I see plenty of goals in this game and, as a result:
we’re backing a Valencia win and over 2.5 goals to be scored.

Group A – Tottenham Hotspur v FC Twente:
This match sees the side that finished fourth in the Premier League take on the Dutch champions in the second round of matches from Group A. Can Twente get anything from their first away Champions League match of the season at White Hart Lane? Bet365 do not think so as they make Spurs the 1.73 favourites to claim all three points, with Twente available at 5.00 and the draw can be backed at 3.60.
Spurs have been an up and down this season so far and have followed up some impressive European results with poor showings in the Premier League. When they defeated Young Boys to qualify for the Champions League they were beaten by Wigan Athletic and after their 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen they were beaten by West Bromwich Albion, both games that they should have won. Last week was a poor one for Spurs too, losing to bitter rivals Arsenal in the Carling Cup before being beaten by West Ham at the weekend. Can they turn their poor week around and claim their first Champions League win?
FC Twente will be no pushovers for Spurs in this match as they are on an unbeaten run of thirteen games in all competitions in a run that stretches back as far as April. They began their Champions League campaign with a 2-2 home draw with defending champions Inter Milan and they sit fourth in the Dutch league following three wins and four draws in an unbeaten start to the season. They are drawing too many games at this early stage and they will need to step up a gear if they are to claim all three points in London.
Harry Redknapp will have his players psyched up for this game and although they are missing several players through in injury I expect to see a home win in this game. However, with the injuries that they have I do not expect things to be easy for them and I see both sides getting on the scoresheet in this game.
Our money is on a Spurs win with both sides to score.
Check the Champions League odds @ sportsbetting.com
For chat and plenty of bets on all of this week’s Champions League action, check out the Champions League Online Betting Stadium!
Some Recommendations:
• Valencia to beat Manchester United @ 2.63
• Over 2.5 goals in the Valencia v Manchester United game @ 2.10
• Tottenham Hotspur to beat FC Twente @ 1.73
• Both Tottenham Hotspur and FC Twente to score @ 1.73

NFL Betting: An Early AFC Update

Before the season began, an argument could have been made for any one of three AFC divisions to be the top of the class. Sorry West, you weren’t invited to the party.

After three weeks, not a lot has been settled in the debate for divisional supremacy. The East and South divisions each contain three teams with identical 2-1 straight-up (SU) records while Baltimore and Cincinnati balance the North.

Miami impressed with back-to-back road wins to start the season but couldn’t handle the New York Jets Sunday night. New England has looked very good on offense for two and-a-half of its three games but a defensive breakdown cost bettors against the Bills and in the only half where the Pats offense was shutout, the Jets made them pay dearly.

Going back to the end of last season, New York’s record is now 6-2 SU/ATS in its past eight games and 9-3 SU/ATS in its past 12. No one seems willing to crown King Sanchez just yet, but a 75-percent record for bettors is at least worth a tip of the cap.

The Bengals have an edge over the Ravens, not just for beating them straight-up in Week 2 but also for dominating the Panthers Sunday with an offense that didn’t even shift out of second gear.

Baltimore does lead the AFC in fewest points allowed (41) but Tennessee is right behind, giving up just 42. And Houston is the only one of 10 teams in the conference with a winning record that has allowed more points (78) than they have scored (77).

But then there is Pittsburgh...

NO OFFENSE, NO PROBLEM
If you can find anyone that says they projected the Steelers (3-0 SU/ATS) to win three-straight games to start the season, shake their hand, say “Congratulations” and then never buy any real estate or insurance from that person.

QB Charlie Batch guided the Steelers to a an absolute drubbing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday, making plays and proving he is a capable backup. A Steelers team that was lost in `09 when defensive standout Troy Polamalu went down has positioned themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. With one game left to play before Ben Roethlisberger returns, bettors need to have a strong system or trend in effect before fading Mike Tomlin’s crew.

The Baltimore Ravens are in Pittsburgh for Week 4 and the early line at sportsbook is Steelers (-1.5). The Over/Under is 34. Early betting action at Sportsbetting.com has 55% of the action on the visiting Ravens and 58% of the volume on the “Under”.

HOT STREAKS
We mentioned how well the Jets have performed if you include last season’s results, but Pittsburgh slips under the radar since they missed the playoffs in January.

- Pittsburgh is 6-0 straight-up in its last six games and for sports bettors, they have a record of 4-1-1 against the spread in that stretch.

- The Steelers are outscoring opponents 44-12 in the first-half through the first three weeks of the season

Not bad for a team built on defense!

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Monday Night Football – Green Bay at Chicago

The Packers started the season with a decisive win in Philadelphia and backed it up with a proper throttling of Buffalo in Week 2 at Lambeau Field. Last season Green Bay had made a habit of beating up on lesser foes (by an average of more than 25 points per game) and last week’s 34-7 final was right in line.

Sportsbook have the line in this one posted as the Packers -3, with a Total of 46.

Chicago barely avoided an opening week upset at the hands of the Detroit Lions, while they were big underdogs Week 2 in Dallas, a game they won straight up.

Now Chicago is 2-0 SU on the season and looking for its first 3-0 start since a memorable 2006 campaign that ended with Super Bowl loss to the Colts.

In 2009, the Bears did start the year with a 3-1 SU/ATS record but the loss was suffered in Week 1 against these same Packers.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Chicago won only seven games last season so it’s not surprising they were 0-2 SU/ATS against the 11-win Packers. Green Bay also swept the Bears in 2008 against the number. In fact Chicago bettors have not had a winning season backing the Bears against the division since 2005 (4-1-1 ATS)

BACK IT UP
Green Bay was 5-1 SU/ATS against low-tier opponents last year, all five wins coming by a margin of 19 points or more (26.6 ppg avg). In the contest that immediately followed the five blowout victories Green Bay was 3-2 SU/ATS with 2 overs and 3 unders.

Worth noting is that both losses were against divisional foes and both of those game went "Over" the total.

GAMEPLAN
Green Bay was No. 1 against the rush last year and has to be expecting Chicago to go airborne in an attempt to free up lanes for Matt Forte. The Packer have to be on the lookout for swing passes, though, as all three of Forte’s TDs this year have come via the pass.

The Packers run game is still a bit of a mystery since Ryan Grant went down, as Green Bay split carries between Brandon Jackson (11, 29 yards) and John Kuhn (9, 36 yards). Expect Jackson to get a slightly heavier workload but for Green Bay’s offense to focus mainly on the passing game.

Monday Night Pick
Chicago is 6-14-2 ATS after its past 22 wins and has covered the spread back-to-back times just twice in the past two years. Their early season performance has forced online books to post a modest line for this game but getting at least three, we like the home underdog in this primetime matchup.
Take the Bears

You can check the props and NFL odds for the Monday nighter at Sportsbetting.com

English Premier League Picks

There is another full card of English Premier League matches this weekend and after the excitement of last weekend’s games we’re expecting more fireworks this Saturday and Sunday! Let’s look at the four biggest games.
Chelsea vs. Man City
The weekend kicks off with the biggest game as Manchester City host Chelsea at the City of Manchester Stadium in Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff. Chelsea have started the season off in impressive style, winning all six of their Premier and Champions League matches and scoring 25 goals in the process. This game will be their first big test of the season though and it was one they failed last season, losing both games against Manchester City. However, they look stronger and better than last season when they won the Premier League. Checking the sportsbook lines, we like the Chelsea to win this one.

West Bromwich Albion vs. Arsenal
Also in action on Saturday are Arsenal, who entertain newly promoted West Bromwich Albion at the Emirates Stadium. West Brom will be in high spirits after beating local rivals Birmingham City last weekend, but a trip to the Emirates is daunting at any stage, but especially this season as Arsenal are in devastating form at home so far.

Arsenal have scored 16 goals in their 3 home matches this season, scoring 6 goals on two occasions and 4 in the other match. We expect that there will be plenty more goals to be seen in London this weekend too, so we’re putting our cash on the Over 2.5 goals.

Sunderland vs. Liverpool
Another game we’re looking at on Saturday sees Liverpool welcome Sunderland to Anfield. Both of these sides are fairly poor away from home, with Liverpool lucky to come so close to beating Manchester United last weekend and Sunderland having picked up just one point from three away games this season so far. We expect Liverpool to have the edge at Anfield this weekend and we’re backing a home win in this one @ 1.33.

Man U vs. Bolton
The final game we’re looking at comes from the Reebok Stadium, where Bolton Wanderers take on Manchester United. Last weekend Dimitar Berbatov scored a great hat-trick to claim the match ball and all three points against Liverpool. He’ll be looking to add more goals to his name this weekend and with Manchester United having won their last five matches against Bolton it is likely that he’ll be on the scoresheet again. Can Bolton do anything to stop Man United? There two home games have seen draws against Fulham and Birmingham City this season, so we’re expecting an easy win for the visitors in this one and we’re putting our money on a Manchester United to win @ 1.39.
You can check all the Premier League odds @ sportsbetting.com