Thursday, October 29, 2009

World Series bumps Favre’s Lambeau return

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The big game on this week’s NFL sked sees Minnesota Vikings QB Brett Favre returning to his old stomping ground, Lambeau Field.

The Vikes are 3.5-point underdogs and the Total is set at 47. ( NFL lines )

Favre has taken a pre-emptive strike saying that this year’s Vikings team “physically, and from a talent level, is the best team [he’s] ever been on”–that would include the 1996 Green Bay Packers team that Favre won a Super Bowl with.

Favre said his comments weren’t a slight to that ‘96 team.

While Minnesota is 3-6 straight up in its last nine visits to Wisconsin, it is also 7-2 against the spread. ( bet on NFL )

The Vikings are also 2-7 SU and ATS when underdogs of 4-points or less.

Cavs Look To Take Flight At Air Canada Centre

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Favored to take the East (+150), the Cleveland Cavaliers didn’t exactly get off to a good start, losing to the Boston Celtics in their opener last night.

The Cavs look to rebound tonight in Toronto at the ACC when they take on the Raptors–Cleveland is a 6-point road fave with the Over/Under at 192.5.

In Cleveland’s last 13 visits to Toronto, it has taken 10 Unders, 2 Overs and a Push, including Unders in the last seven-straight games.( masters betting )

The Cavs have also done well when playing the second of back to backs, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in such games.

2009 World Series Game 1 Trends

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As mentioned, the World Series begins tonight between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees with the AL champs listed as -173 home faves and the NL champs +158 road ‘dogs.

In the last 10 meetings overall between the two, the Under has prevailed 8 times and the Over twice. ( online betting )

In Philly’s last nine road games, they have gone Over the Total 8 times.

The Yankees are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games with 9 Unders and a Push on the Total, including 7 Unders in a row.

Cliff Lee starts for Philadelphia and in his last 10 road starts, his teams (Cleveland and Philly) have gone 8-2 SU. ( Sports gambling )

CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Pinstripes, who are 9-0 SU in CC’s last nine home starts with 8 Unders.

Both the Bronx Bombers and the Phillies are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games in October with the NL Pennant winners taking 7 Overs, 2 Unders and a Push in the same time.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Monday Night Football: Broncos vs. Chargers

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When planning out how the conclusion to the NFL betting card for Week 6 would shape up, this matchup between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers couldn’t have been scripted any better. ESPN has to be happy with this matchup.

On one side of the field, an AFC West team that has surprised many with its .500 start and defensive struggles, desperately seeking to generate something positive out of its second divisional game of the year. And then on the other, an opponent that has already established dominance in the West with wins at home and abroad and looks to this game as a chance to prove to a national TV audience that they are indeed for real.

It all sounds about right; only thing is that somebody forgot to let the Broncos in on the plan.

In a complete role reversal, Denver has busted out of the gate this season with a 5-0 SU/ATS start. Critics shot holes in the record at 3-0, citing the win at Cincinnati as fluke and the triumphs over Cleveland and Oakland as compulsory. But come from behind victories the past two weeks against Dallas and a New England silenced most detractors. The Patriots response to that overtime loss in Denver – a 59-0 blowout vs. Tennessee on Sunday – quieted the rest.

Online sportsbooks have the odds on this one set at -3.5 on the home side Chargers heading into Monday’s betting action. San Diego’s 5-1 record vs. Denver in the past six meetings also had to be taken into account.

Denver’s defense has been the real story this year, led by linebacker Elvis Dumervil (five sacks) and inspired by a rejuvenated Brian Dawkins on the back end. It’s taken the heat off QB Kyle Orton, allowing him to pad a now very impressive 26-12 record as a starter by simple managing the football game, not win it on his arm alone.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers has thrived under the Monday Night lights, posting a 4-0 record and a sparkling 106.9 passer rating, but San Diego will need its 32nd ranked run-game to come around if it hopes to compete against Denver. (NFL Live Odds)

Betting on the Broncos D to keep opponents in check has produced a perfect record of five-straight picks on the "Under" and against this Charger team that cranked out 52 points against them in Week 17, capping a miserable 2008 season, revenge is the order of the day.

San Diego is fully rested off its bye week and Denver has a bye on-deck. The Broncos used to play well before a bye (11-2 ATS) but they are 0-2 SU/ATS the past two years, giving up 82 combined points in those losses. Offensive dominated both meetings last year as these hated rivals combined for 150 total points. (Bet on NFL)

This is the first of three-straight divisional games for San Diego but this does not shape up as a look-ahead spot for either team. More likely, this should turn into one of the hardest hitting Monday games bettors have been treated to all year.

NFL Picks: The Broncos season has been very impressive, but I lean to the Chargers laying -3 (buy the hook), as they get the job done at home on Monday night football.

Friday, October 16, 2009

BCS Bowl Rankings – Online Betting

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The first Bowl Championship Series rankings (BCS Rankings) of 2009 will be released this Sunday and as it stands, the Top 3 college football teams, according to the Associated Press and ESPN, are the Florida Gators, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas Longhorns.

Let’s take a look at NCAA football odds for the top three teams as the sports betting public prepares for the rankings.

Florida Gators
The song remains the same in the No. 1 position as the Gators have maintained their perch atop the Division I rankings since the preseason rankings were released.

Back in early-August, Florida was listed as the odds-on favorite to win both the Southeastern Conference (-225) and repeat as BCS champions (+200).

While the Gators started off the season with two soft opponents (Charleston Southern and Troy), they have faced three sturdier challenges recently and have passed the test, going 3-0 straight up.

Florida defeated the Tennessee Volunteers 23-13 back on September 19 but failed to cover as favorites of 30-something.

They hammered the Kentucky Wildcats 41-7, covering a 20-something pointspread, but received a scare when star QB Tim Tebow suffered a concussion.

Tebow bounced back in a game against LSU a few weeks later when the Gators defeated the Tigers 13-3, covering at 7.5-points.

Florida Gators Odds: Currently, the Florida Gators’ odds have improved, as they are currently -300 to take the SEC and +125 to win back to back BCS titles.

Alabama Crimson Tide
While the Gators own the best record in the SEC East at 5-0, they don’t own the best record in the SEC overall, the 6-0 Alabama Crimson Tide have that honor.

Currently ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, the Tide have definitely been moving since the preseason, when online sportsbook had them ranked No. 5 and listed at +2000 to take this season’s BCS title.

‘Bama has a tough sked going down the stretch however, as they face a tough divisional matchups the likes of the No. 22 South Carolina Gamecocks (the Tide are -17 for that game), the Tennessee Volunteers, the No. 10 LSU Tigers, the Mississippi St. Bulldogs and then the Auburn Tigers.

Alabama Odds: Like the Gators, the Tide’s odds have also improved as they are currently +350 to win the 2010 BCS championship.

Texas Longhorns
While they are still undefeated and atop the Big 12, the Texas Longhorns have taken a small slip in the AP poll.
Ranked as the second-best team in the nation in the preseason (+700 to win the national title at the time), Texas currently sees itself in the No. 3 spot.

The Longhorns can grab some brownie points this week with a convincing win over the No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners in this year’s Red River Rivalry game—Texas is currently a 3.5-point favorite for that game—just in time for the first BCS rankings.

Prior to the release of those rankings, Texas is a +400 favorite in 2010 BCS championship futures online betting.

Elevator Going Down!
Oklahoma Sooners

While Texas, Florida and Alabama have seen their odds to win it all improve, the No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners have seen the opposite occur.
The runners-up to the Florida Gators in last season’s BCS championship, Oklahoma was +500 to win the national title in the preseason but in hindsight, a wager on them wouldn’t have been wise.

Oklahoma’s bad luck started in Week 1 when they not only failed to cover a 21.5-point spread against the BYU Cougars, they lost 14-13 as well.

And the Sooners dealt their BCS chances another blow two weeks ago when they lost to the Miami Hurricanes 21-20.

The Sooners currently aren’t an option in 2010 BCS championship futures betting.

There usually is some controversy when the first BCS rankings are released but it’s a pretty safe bet that Florida, Alabama and Texas will be at the top.

Enjoy the weekend NCAA football betting action.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Baseball Betting: American League Championship Series

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It’s been a while since the New York Yankees made a World Series and you need to go back nine years since they captured one, but both the sports betting public and fans alike are having a difficult time seeing anyone beating them this year.

The Yankees had the best record in the entire regular season at 103-59 and swept the Minnesota Twins 3-0 in their American League Divisional Series.

It won’t be a straight path to the World Series however as the Yanks face the Los Angeles Angels, who were 97-65 in the regular season and also had an ALDS sweep, taking down the Boston Red Sox 3-0.

Online Sportsbook have the Yankees as the odds-on faves to win the World Series at -125 while the Angels are +350 to win it all.

Game 1 of the American League Championship Series goes on Friday and the series price on the Pinstripes is -180 while it is +160 for the Angels.

CC Sabathia will start for the home team Yanks, who are -170 faves in Game 1, and John Lackey will do the same for the Angels, who are +155 with a Total of 8.5.

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In the Angels’ last nine visits to Yankee Stadium, there have been 7 Overs and 2 Unders.

The Yanks broke open the bank for Sabathia in the offseason and he has paid dividends.

In CC’s last 20 home starts, New York has gone 15-5 straight up and in his last eight home starts, the Bronx Bombers are 8-0 SU.

Sabathia’s last eight home starts have also produced 7 Unders.

Lackey has not been particularly strong in the month of October when it comes to wins and losses.

In his last eight outings in that month, the Angels have gone 2-6 SU.

He has taken his fair share of Unders in that month however, as his last 11 October outings have yielded 10 Unders and a single Over.

Sabathia is a southpaw and in the Angels’ last 12 games against lefties, they are 10-2 SU and in their last 10 against LHPs, they have posted 9 Unders and an Over.

Lackey is a right-hander and the Yanks have been almost as impressive in their last 10 against righties going 8-2 SU with 7 Unders, 2 Overs and a Push on the Total to boot.

After seeing the Boston Red Sox capture a couple of World Series titles the past few seasons, you know Yankees fans are pining for another championship.

So far, the early sports betting action at online sportsbooks ( baseball bet) has the Yankees seeing almost 80% of the volume in Game 1.

We’ll find out if they can keep rolling starting this coming Friday.